The First Round, Explained

I

For the second summer running, the first round belongs to the running backs — and this year the market has stopped apologizing for it. Across nearly 7,500 PPR mock drafts logged in the public markets this past week, Jahmyr Gibbs (ADP 1.6) and Bijan Robinson (1.9) sit alone at the top, a two-man tier the industry no longer bothers to debate. In an industry expert mock published this morning, six running backs left the board in the first twelve picks, and the room noted the position is still gaining ground on wide receivers compared to July. PFF's board concurs at the summit: their half-PPR cheat sheet has Gibbs first overall, with Puka Nacua its top-ranked receiver.

The receivers who held their ground are the ones you would expect at a club like this. Puka Nacua (3.1) is the first wideout drafted, with Ja'Marr Chase (3.9) directly behind, and Seattle's Jaxon Smith-Njigba (5.4) completing the trio the strategy writers have taken to calling the Big Three. After them comes the interesting part of the round: Amon-Ra St. Brown at 6.3, then Christian McCaffrey at 6.6 — the same McCaffrey who carried more than 400 touches last season into his age-30 year, a workload the fade columns have already noticed.

The most telling name is the last one. Justin Jefferson at 11.7 would have been unthinkable two summers ago, but the market is pricing in a new quarterback — Kyler Murray, named Minnesota's starter over J.J. McCarthy this month — and a 2025 season Jefferson himself would rather forget. Some drafters will read that as damage; the patient ones will notice that a generational receiver now costs a late first.

The top of the board is remarkably orderly. The disagreements — and the profit — begin at pick thirteen.

Just beyond the turn, the second round opens with James Cook (12.7), Chase Brown (13.4), and the two most argued-about players of the summer: Kansas City's Rashee Rice (14.8), whom one expert mock this week took at 3.01 — a full round early — and Las Vegas rookie-no-longer Ashton Jeanty (15.1), whose offensive line the fade lists describe in terms we would not print in a members' journal. Derrick Henry at 17.6, A.J. Brown at 18.2 in his first New England summer, and Saquon Barkley at 19.7 round out the names your leaguemates will argue loudest about. Let them argue. The board above is the market; the articles that follow are where we disagree with it.